Keir Starmer's limp Labour conference just got even worse for embattled PM

It was not exactly the news Sir Keir Starmer wanted on the eve of his make-or-break conference speech. According to polling by Sky News, Manchester mayor and would-be Labour leader Andy Burnham would beat the PM among Labour members by two to one if there was a leadership contest today. As if Sir Keir didn't have enough trouble fending off Nigel Farage, with opinion polls still showing a massive lead for Reform UK, now 'king of the North' Burnham is touted as a potential challenger.

According to a press release, the PM will spend his speech talking about national renewal. Yet his Labour government has had over a year to start turning around Tory failures. Instead, these have become entrenched. The problem Sir Keir has is that elsewhere in the world politicians have gotten a grip of the issues which beset the UK.

Just take US President Donald Trump who, in office less time than Sir Keir, has managed to get a grip on illegal immigration (and America has a land border to defend!).

Nigel Farage and Reform lead Labour and the Tories significantly on the issue of immigration, which - alongside the economy, NHS and the cost of living - remains one of the biggest areas of concern for the public.

There is some good news however for Sir Keir. According to pollster Ipsos, 38% of people say they prefer a Labour party led by the PM versus 35% who pick Reform led by Farage.

While this seems to contradict polling which puts Reform well ahead of Labour, Ipsos found the public trust Labour more on the NHS, while Labour and Reform are pretty much neck and neck when it comes to the economy and cost of living.

For Farage, Labour propaganda about Reform flogging off the NHS might still be an issue. Moreover, any hint that Reform is becoming a refuge for former and current Tory MPs could prove a problem if Labour convinces enough folks Reform is little more than a rehashed Conservative Party.

As election day nears, Reform will need to flesh out its ideas in detail. Farage knows his party will receive an unprecedented level of scrutiny, including over its record in local government.

While immigration is certain to remain salient, Reform cannot put all its eggs in this basket, especially if Labour retains an edge on issues like the NHS and welfare.

Nonetheless, right now it is Sir Keir - and not Farage - who is up against it. Underwater in the polls and facing the prospect of a challenge from Manchester mayor Burnham.

Still, some polling suggests Burnham could reverse Reform's poll lead, if only in the short-term. Farage knows much can change between now and an election still slated for 2029, just as Sir Keir's fortunes reversed so dramatically after last year's landslide win.

That said, it is the PM who now faces perhaps his greatest challenge yet and the fight of his political life.