For all the bluff and bluster, this 1 thing is STILL the only thing stopping the boats

A Labour MP is being derided on social media after celebrating seven consecutive days of no migrant crossings. Seemingly unable to help himself, Oliver Ryan posted on X "stop the boats", as though he was claiming victory.

It's remarkable how this PR faux pas could have been avoided by simply looking out of the window or checking the weather forecast. And, as the weather has improved over the last four days, 2,121 migrants crossed the Channel. So, once again, we are left examining what exactly is stopping thousands of migrants from crossing the Channel.

Because, right now, it is clear business is booming for the people smugglers.

For all the bluff and bluster from Labour, migrants are not being deterred by the one-in, one-out deal with France.

In fact, the Government's critics have coined the phrase "hokey cokey migrants" because two have now crossed the Channel for a second time after being returned to France.

And charities are claiming failed asylum seekers are attempting to cross again because the French are refusing to house them.

Paris, meanwhile, is struggling to deport them back to either their home countries or another EU country under the Dublin Agreement.

Migrants are claiming they have faced police brutality in the countries where they first arrived on the continent.

So, the merry-go-round is growing ever bigger, and thousands are still arriving in northern France hoping to cross the Channel.

And the way in which there have been four consecutive days of more than 300 migrants shows the criminal gangs are having no problem meeting the demand, despite repeated claims of efforts to disrupt the smugglers' supply chains.

The public are completely exasperated by this crisis. They want ministers to "stop the boats", but instead they are watching thousands cross, with seemingly little stopping dinghies from reaching the median line in the Channel.

People have been promised that the French would start intercepting boats in shallow waters.

Yet this seems like a pipe dream at the moment.

Sources within the Government told me in June that they were getting increasingly frustrated by French promises resulting in absolutely nothing.

This isn't a new problem. But why is this not a diplomatic priority? Ministers must surely be asking what more can be done to convince Paris to finally change their maritime doctrine.

If they are not, why not?

And while migrants are showing such disregard for the one-in, out-deal, the best defence against migrant crossings is tragically still the same thing that it was in 2019.

The weather.